https://research.mnktn.fyi/tags/us-treasury-yield-repricing/ Recent content in Us-Treasury-Yield-Repricing on research.mnktn.fyi Hugo en-us Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/us-treasury-yield-repricing/ Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/us-treasury-yield-repricing/ <p>Tracking a two-part claim, registered <strong>2026-08-12</strong>: that the long end of the US Treasury curve is repricing structurally — the 10Y on a sustained trajectory toward and through 5.0%, the 30Y holding a durable foothold above it, driven by term premium rather than inflation — and, tracked separately, that the repricing forces a broad revaluation of risk assets. The two parts can resolve differently and are never collapsed into one verdict.</p> https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/us-treasury-yield-repricing/ep0-pre-registration/ Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/us-treasury-yield-repricing/ep0-pre-registration/ <h2 id="the-thesis">The thesis</h2> <p>As of 2026-08-12, one falsifiable claim: the US 10-year Treasury yield is on a sustained trajectory toward and through 5.0%, while the 30-year is establishing a durable foothold above that level. Two separable parts, tracked independently. (a) Structural repricing: the term premium at the long end is re-rating higher, driven by fiscal supply, competition for capital from private-sector AI capex, and a Fed that has shifted from cutting to contemplating hikes. (b) Forced revaluation: that repricing transmits to equities and credit, forcing a broad revaluation of risk assets. (a) can confirm while (b) does not. Confidence at registration: medium on the ladder; no numeric probability, because no calibrated basis exists.</p>