Gold-Risk-Asset-Decoupling on research.mnktn.fyi

Gold–Risk Asset Decoupling

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Tracking a regime-switching claim, registered 2026-08-22: that the co-movement of gold and equities rests on a shared reaction function to rate expectations and real yields, and that once energy/commodity-shock inflation becomes entrenched (a fixed three-leg composite), that function breaks down and the gold–equity correlation collapses — direction of gold afterward unspecified. The entrenchment precondition (a) and the conditional correlation breakdown (b) are scored independently and never collapsed into one verdict; decorrelation without entrenchment falsifies rather than confirms.

Gold–Risk Asset Decoupling — Episode 1: The September Stress Test

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What changed since episode 0

Episode 0 (2026-08-22) registered a conditional, regime-switch claim—that entrenched inflation breaks the reaction function gold and equities share—and said plainly that the counter-case outweighed the thesis: confidence low; F1’s correlation leg live at 79 sessions above +0.40 under a PARTIAL entrenchment gate (legs i+ii met, iii failing); the March 2026 Iran shock as the first failed natural test. Every pillar of that reading has since moved. The +0.40 streak broke in early September. The gate’s composition inverted: leg (i) reset from seven months of persistence to one, while leg (iii) met for the first time. September delivered a Fed hike, a $130 oil spike, and an active war—and gold stayed coupled. And the statistical agency behind leg (i) re-based its measurement mid-flight.

Gold–Risk Asset Decoupling — Pre-registration

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The thesis

Gold and equities co-move because they share a reaction function: both price market-implied rate expectations and real-yield dynamics — cut expectations lift both, hike expectations drag both. Our claim is conditional: once elevated inflationary pressure — driven primarily by energy and commodity supply shocks — becomes entrenched (persistent, feeding core and services inflation, de-anchoring expectations, forcing sustained restriction), that shared function breaks down: gold responds to inflation persistence directly, as a store of value, while equities stay dominated by the discount-rate and earnings channels of tightening.