US Treasury Yield Repricing — Episode 2: The De-Escalation Test

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What changed since episode 1

In episode 1 we judged the 5.00% breach partly a war artifact, moved the crux to attribution — durable repricing versus reversible oil premium — and pre-registered the line: a 10-year holding ≥4.80% through an oil retracement would be the cleanest structural-floor evidence yet. That test passed. The breach faded to 4.94–4.96% (2026-09-17→22); Brent fell to $99 on Iran’s Hormuz-reopening proposal (Kyodo, via Trading Economics, 2026-09-22) — and the 10-year held above the line, then broke out on non-oil drivers to 5.11% (FRED DGS10, 2026-09-23) and 5.18% (Treasury par curve, 2026-09-24; FRED lags a day). The 30-year hit 5.47% on the same curve, highest since 2004 (Bloomberg, via Macro Roundup), its ≥5.00% streak at 57 sessions (FRED DGS30). The ambiguity moved: episode 1’s lone soft 20-year generalized into a tenor-band concession stopping short of the 10Y/30Y flagships — untested until mid-October — while a new risk emerged: intervention capping the repricing.

US Treasury Yield Repricing — Episode 1: The 5.00% Breach

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What changed since episode 0

In episode 0 we registered two separable parts — (a) structural repricing at the long end, (b) forced revaluation in equities and credit — at medium confidence, and named the central open question as regime floor versus mean reversion. The level has now arrived: the 10-year closed at 5.00% on 2026-09-15, the first close at the registered target (intraday 5.03%, the highest since July 2007; FRED DGS10, through 2026-09-15), and the 30-year sits at 5.36% with its ≥5.00% foothold streak doubled from 25 sessions to 50 (FRED DGS30).

Episode on research.mnktn.fyi

US Treasury Yield Repricing — Episode 2: The De-Escalation Test

What changed since episode 1

US Treasury Yield Repricing — Episode 1: The 5.00% Breach

What changed since episode 0