AI-Capex Capital Competition

Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Tracking a two-leg claim, registered 2026-08-29: that private AI-infrastructure capital expenditure has become a first-order, independently observable macro driver — (a) financially, hyperscaler capex and the corporate financing that supports it compete with Treasury supply for the same capital pool, bidding up the long end of the US curve independent of inflation expectations; and (b) physically, data-center load is the marginal driver of US electricity demand growth, with capex its 1–3-year leading indicator. The legs share one impulse, can resolve differently, and are never collapsed into one verdict.

AI-Capex Capital Competition — Pre-registration

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The thesis

We register a falsifiable claim, not a domain label: private AI-infrastructure capex — hyperscaler data-center buildout plus the semiconductor supply chain feeding it — has become a first-order, independently observable macro driver, operating through two separable legs tracked independently and never collapsed into one verdict.

Financial leg, capital competition: sustained double-to-triple-digit capex growth absorbs private savings and creates correlated corporate financing needs, competing with Treasury supply for the same capital pool and bidding up the long end independent of inflation expectations. Our sibling US Treasury yield-repricing series lists this competition among its term-premium drivers but does not instrument it (pre-registration, 2026-08-12); capex decelerating while long yields stay elevated would cost that thesis its non-fiscal demand pillar.

Ai-Capex-Capital-Competition on research.mnktn.fyi

AI-Capex Capital Competition

AI-Capex Capital Competition — Pre-registration

The thesis