US Treasury Yield Repricing OPEN
Tracking a two-part claim, registered 2026-08-12: that the long end of the US Treasury curve is repricing structurally — the 10Y on a sustained trajectory toward and through 5.0%, the 30Y holding a durable foothold above it, driven by term premium rather than inflation — and, tracked separately, that the repricing forces a broad revaluation of risk assets. The two parts can resolve differently and are never collapsed into one verdict.
This series predates the site’s public logging (which began 2026-10-14); its pre-registration is published verbatim, with original as-of dates, per the retrospective-start rules.
current ledger
carried forward from US Treasury Yield Repricing — Pre-registration (as of 2026-08-12).
| id | condition | threshold | observable by | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | 10Y sustained below 4.30% for 20+ trading days by end Q4 2026 | 4.30% / 20 days | end Q4 2026 | not-met | 2026-08-10 |
| F2 | 30Y sustained below 4.80% for 20+ trading days by end Q4 2026 | 4.80% / 20 days | end Q4 2026 | not-met | 2026-08-10 |
| F3 | 10Y BEI > 3.0% AND Fed cuts 50bp+ before end 2026 | BEI > 3.0% + 50bp cuts | before end 2026 | not-met | 2026-08-11 |
| F4 | Flight-to-quality: 10Y drops 50bp+ in <10 sessions while equities fall | 50bp / <10 sessions | any <10-session window | not-met | 2026-08-12 |
| F5 | Congress enacts deficit reduction ≥2% of GDP within 2 years | enacted legislation | within 2 years of registration | not-met | 2026-08-12 |
episodes
- 2026-08-12 initiation US Treasury Yield Repricing — Pre-registration