https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/super-el-nino-macro-shock/ Recent content in Super El Niño 2026–27 → Macro Shock on research.mnktn.fyi Hugo en-us Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/super-el-nino-macro-shock/ep0-pre-registration/ Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/super-el-nino-macro-shock/ep0-pre-registration/ <h2 id="the-thesis">The thesis</h2> <p>We pre-register, as of 2026-10-03, a falsifiable claim; thresholds before outcomes. The 2026–27 El Niño — daily Niño 3.4 at +3.11 °C on 2026-09-21, above the 2015 daily record (Carbon Brief, 2026-09-21, updated 2026-09-30), ONI v6 at +1.8 °C for JJA 2026 and rising (NOAA CPC, September 2026) — is a physically persistent, record-class event transmitting as a sustained supply-side inflation impulse in the &ldquo;sticky inflation / mild stagflation&rdquo; band: +0.5 to +1.5 pp on global/US headline inflation versus the counterfactual, year over year, over four to six quarters from autumn 2026; absorbed by the policy system without breaking.</p>