Super El Niño 2026–27 → Macro Shock OPEN
Tracking a three-leg claim, registered 2026-10-03: that the 2026–27 El Niño is a physically persistent, record-class event transmitting into the global economy as a sustained supply-side inflation impulse in the “sticky inflation / mild stagflation” band (+0.5 to +1.5 pp on headline inflation, four to six quarters from autumn 2026), and that the policy system absorbs it without breaking. The legs — physical (A), transmission (B), policy & distribution (C) — are separately falsifiable and never collapsed into one verdict; the metric contest over “super” (daily ONI-convention vs ONI v6 vs RONI) is tracked explicitly.
This series predates the site’s public logging (which began 2026-10-14); its pre-registration is published verbatim, with original as-of dates, per the retrospective-start rules.
current ledger
carried forward from Super El Niño 2026–27 → Macro Shock — Pre-registration (as of 2026-10-03).
| id | condition | threshold | observable by | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Physical leg failure (early exit or never-super on the official metric) | ANY of: (a) ONI v6 stays < +2.0 in every release covering Aug 2026–Jan 2027 months (JAS 2026 through NDJ 2026); (b) ONI ≤ +0.5 in any season covering months through Feb 2027; (c) ONI ≤ −0.5 (La Niña) in any season covering months through Jun 2027 | CPC ONI v6 monthly releases (~9th of each month), JAS 2026 through AMJ 2027; adjudicate on revised values | not-met | 2026-10-03 |
| F2 | Transmission failure (benign pass-through) | ALL of, through Sep 2027 releases: (a) US food+energy contribution to headline CPI YoY rises < +0.4 pp from the Sep 2026 print; (b) FAO FPI never ≥ +15 % YoY in any monthly release Oct 2026–Jul 2027; (c) no new staple export ban (rice/wheat/palm/sugar) by a major exporter (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Russia) Oct 2026–Jun 2027; (d) Drewry WCI never ≥ +50 % vs the Oct 2026 baseline for ≥ 4 consecutive weeks with weather/rerouting attribution | BLS CPI (~10th–15th monthly), FAO FPI (first Friday monthly), Drewry WCI (weekly) — through Sep 2027 releases | not-met | 2026-10-03 |
| F3 | Policy non-response (no delay, no supply-shock framing) | Fed AND ECB deliver at least as many cuts Oct 2026–Jun 2027 as the OIS-implied paths recorded at baseline (snapshot mandatory before any F3 adjudication), AND no G10 central bank cites El Niño / climate-driven supply shock as a factor in any statement, minutes, or press conference through Jun 2027 | FOMC/ECB meetings and communications through Jun 2027 | not-met | 2026-10-03 |
| F4 | Tail materialization (band breached upward; base case falsified toward the catastrophic scenario) | ≥ 2 of, before Jul 2027: (a) FAO FPI ≥ +40 % YoY at any release; (b) ≥ 2 sovereign debt events (default, IMF program ≥ $10 bn, distressed exchange) with official attribution materially citing food/energy/climate shock; (c) ≥ 3 simultaneous major-exporter staple bans; (d) WCI ≥ 2× the Oct 2026 baseline sustained ≥ 8 consecutive weeks; (e) US T5YIE ≥ 3.5 sustained 10 sessions OR U-Mich 5–10y expectations ≥ 4.0 in two consecutive monthly surveys | monthly releases; adjudicated before Jul 2027 | not-met | 2026-10-03 |
episodes
- 2026-10-03 initiation Super El Niño 2026–27 → Macro Shock — Pre-registration