https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/ai-capex-capital-competition/ Recent content in AI-Capex Capital Competition on research.mnktn.fyi Hugo en-us Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/ai-capex-capital-competition/ep0-pre-registration/ Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://research.mnktn.fyi/series/ai-capex-capital-competition/ep0-pre-registration/ <h2 id="the-thesis">The thesis</h2> <p>We register a falsifiable claim, not a domain label: private AI-infrastructure capex — hyperscaler data-center buildout plus the semiconductor supply chain feeding it — has become a first-order, independently observable macro driver, operating through two separable legs tracked independently and never collapsed into one verdict.</p> <p>Financial leg, capital competition: sustained double-to-triple-digit capex growth absorbs private savings and creates correlated corporate financing needs, competing with Treasury supply for the same capital pool and bidding up the long end independent of inflation expectations. Our sibling US Treasury yield-repricing series lists this competition among its term-premium drivers but does not instrument it (pre-registration, 2026-08-12); capex decelerating while long yields stay elevated would cost that thesis its non-fiscal demand pillar.</p>