AI-Capex Capital Competition OPEN
Tracking a two-leg claim, registered 2026-08-29: that private AI-infrastructure capital expenditure has become a first-order, independently observable macro driver — (a) financially, hyperscaler capex and the corporate financing that supports it compete with Treasury supply for the same capital pool, bidding up the long end of the US curve independent of inflation expectations; and (b) physically, data-center load is the marginal driver of US electricity demand growth, with capex its 1–3-year leading indicator. The legs share one impulse, can resolve differently, and are never collapsed into one verdict.
This series predates the site’s public logging (which began 2026-10-14); its pre-registration is published verbatim, with original as-of dates, per the retrospective-start rules.
current ledger
carried forward from AI-Capex Capital Competition — Pre-registration (as of 2026-08-29).
| id | condition | threshold | observable by | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Aggregate capex YoY negative for 2+ consecutive quarters while 10Y ≥ 5.0% | <0 ×2q / 10Y ≥5% | any 2+ consecutive-quarter window | not-met | 2026-08-29 |
| F2 | Aggregate capex ≥ +20% YoY for 4+ consecutive quarters while 10Y falls and holds < 4.30% | ≥+20% ×4q / 10Y <4.3% | any 4+ consecutive-quarter window | not-met | 2026-08-29 |
| F3 | STEO/IEA data-center demand revisions turn negative (absolute decline) while capex still ≥ +20% YoY | revisions <0 / capex ≥+20% | each STEO/IEA revision cycle | not-met | 2026-08-29 |
| F4 | Fed/central-bank documents explicitly attribute long-end pressure to private AI-capex financing demand | named attribution | any central-bank document release | not-met | 2026-08-29 |
episodes
- 2026-08-29 initiation AI-Capex Capital Competition — Pre-registration