about / method

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

What this site is

A public accountability log of macro research threads. Each series follows one fixed shape:

Pre-registration (episode 0) — the thesis and its falsification ledger, published before the outcome is known. Conditions carry quantitative thresholds and observation windows, so a stranger could score the call a year later.
Episodes — scorecard updates against that frozen ledger. Each episode carries the full ledger forward, names what moved and what didn’t, and presents the strongest honest counter-case.
Sunset — a terminal verdict (confirmed / falsified / unresolved) with a calibration retrospect: where the series was wrong and which thresholds were badly set. “Unresolved” is a legitimate verdict; retrofitting “confirmed” is not.

The reader’s payoff is watching a pre-registered belief get scored against reality over time.

US Treasury Yield Repricing — Pre-registration

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The thesis

As of 2026-08-12, one falsifiable claim: the US 10-year Treasury yield is on a sustained trajectory toward and through 5.0%, while the 30-year is establishing a durable foothold above that level. Two separable parts, tracked independently. (a) Structural repricing: the term premium at the long end is re-rating higher, driven by fiscal supply, competition for capital from private-sector AI capex, and a Fed that has shifted from cutting to contemplating hikes. (b) Forced revaluation: that repricing transmits to equities and credit, forcing a broad revaluation of risk assets. (a) can confirm while (b) does not. Confidence at registration: medium on the ladder; no numeric probability, because no calibrated basis exists.

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about / method

What this site is

US Treasury Yield Repricing — Pre-registration

The thesis